Topics of Interest

Anticipating Critical Transitions

October 19, 2012

New article by: Scheffer et al. (2012)

Abstract

Tipping points in complex systems may imply risks of unwanted collapse, but also opportunities for positive change. Our capacity to navigate such risks and opportunities can be boosted by combining emerging insights from two unconnected fields of research. One line of work is revealing fundamental architectural features that may cause ecological networks, financial markets, and other complex systems to have tipping points. Another field of research is uncovering generic empirical indicators of the proximity to such critical thresholds. Although sudden shifts in complex systems will inevitably continue to surprise us, work at the crossroads of these emerging fields offers new approaches for anticipating critical transitions.

Reference

Scheffer et al. (2012). Anticipating Critical Transitions. Science 338, 344-348.

Also, see related IRCS Interpretive Brief

Leads on Predicting Institutional Collapse

James K. Hazy, July 3, 2012

A recent study uses catastrophe models, an approach that has been proven across multiple disciplines from physics to ecology, to describe tipping-point events in dynamical systems. These are points, or values of a parameter--describing environmental conditions, the "container," wherein the system functions--that once crossed, can lead to sudden collapse in population density. If similar models can be applied to human organizing, then lessons from these systems may also apply to potential catastrophic collapse of social, political, and economic systems.

The study was conducted using yeast cultures, and therefore is not directly applicable in the human case. But it does provide possible leads for human systems researchers... read more.

Leads on The Mechanisms of Human Communication

James K Hazy, June 8, 2012

Recent research combines information theory with Bayesian logic to provide insights into effective communications among human beings. The two studies described (Frank & Goodman, 2012; Kemp & Regier, 2012) offer distinct yet complementary insights about some possible general principles of language.

Frank and Goodman (2012) implicitly consider this question by describing a “language game”  ...read more. 

References  

Frank, M. C. & Goodman, N. D. (2012). Predicting Pragmatic Reasoning in Language Games. Science, 336, 998.
Kemp, C. & Regier, T. (2012). Kinship Categories Across Languages Reflect General Communications Principles. Science 336, 1049-1054.

The Social Conquest of Earth

a book by E. O. Wilson, May 13, 2012
 

The evolutionary basis for pro-social behavior in humans remains a controversial topic. In particular, the question of how large-scale human cooperative activities like social, cultural, political and economic systems might have evolved through natural selection processes is a fundamental one. Of particular interest is the appropriate unit of selection for individual and collective altruistic and pro-social behavior because these behaviors enable complex organizing.

Interestingly, this question is also at the center of a theoretical dispute in evolutionary biology that erupted as a consequence of the cover article in the journal Nature written by a group that included the prominent evolutionary biologist Edward O. Wilson. The dialogue continues with Wilson's new book: The Social Conquest of Earth.... read more.

Decision-Making in Kind and Wicked Environments

James K. Hazy, April 26, 2012
 

Deciding which expert to believe when one is decidedly more confident that others is both a common practical problem and an important conundrum in the theory of human interaction dynamics (HID). As shown in a recent study, it turns out that the best choice depends upon how well consensus opinion correlates with conditions in the environment ... read more.

Evidence that Dynamic Foraging Behaviors Are Innate in Multiple Species including Human Beings

James K. Hazy, April 18, 2012

 

Dynamic foraging behaviors are defined in human interaction dynamics (HID) as those behaviors that occur as individuals contemplate whether to engage static foraging among the known options in the local environment, or to delay gratification and begin to search for new ones that might be fruitful at a later time. The biological mechanisms that enable this process are being uncovered in human neural processes.

In one recent study, dynamic foraging was shown to involve different areas of the human brain depending upon ... read more

Location and Neighborhood Factors are Powerful Attractors Driving Social Functioning

Washington, DC, April 16, 2012
 

Over the course of 40 years, Robert J. Sampson has been gathering massive amounts of sociological data about the USA's city of Chicago's neighborhoods. His study, published in his recent book, Great American City: Chicago and the Enduring Neighborhood Effect, challenges current orthodoxy and offers strong support for complex systems methods. Among other things he found that two coarse-grained social system properties drove neighborhood outcomes ...read more 

 

Mark your calendars...

The Institute sponsors several events that are intended to further research in Human Interaction Dynamics( HID). For example, it is sponsoring a symposium in Buena Vista, Florida  ... read more 

The Institute

The Institute for Research in Complexity and Society applies findings and insights from the scientific and mathematical study of complex systems to the challenges and opportunities facing today's world community ... read more